Projecting the Sharks' Opening Night Top Six
Mike Grier and the San Jose Sharks have been active this offseason. They traded fan-favorite William Eklund to the Ottawa Senators for draft capital, drafted top prospect Ivar Stenberg second overall, and brought in veterans Mason Marchment, Jacob Trouba, and Darnell Nurse. With all of these new additions, let’s look ahead toward Opening Night and project what the top-six forward group could look like.
Starting with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith, these two are locks for the top line. Their chemistry together on and off the ice is undeniable. Coach Ryan Warsofsky juggled his forward lines very frequently throughout last season, but the pairing of Celebrini and Smith was almost always together when both players were healthy.
One of the biggest questions is who will join them on that top line. According to MoneyPuck.com, Collin Graf played 263 minutes alongside Celebrini and Smith, and together they recorded a team-high 11.8 expected goals for among Sharks lines that played a minimum of 100 minutes together. But that line also had a team-high 11.4 expected goals against. Warsofsky brought this up in March, also citing other advanced analytics such as puck possession as reasons why he broke up this line at times.
Tyler Toffoli and Igor Chernyshov also played significant minutes with Celebrini and Smith, logging 210 and 128 minutes, respectively. Toffoli throughout the season often struggled to keep up with his younger linemates, while Chernyshov showed plenty of offensive talent and potential, becoming a favorite to play with Celebrini and Smith to close the year.
But with the additions of Marchment and Sherwood, and knowing that Warsofsky tends to lean on his veterans, I think Opening Night could see Marchment filling that role. He is a proven 20-goal-scoring winger who would also add size and grit to that top line. He can score off the rush and in the cycle, consistently finds soft spots in the slot between defenders, and has a great shot up close and from midrange. I think he could easily reach a career high in goals with Celebrini feeding him passes.
The competition for second-line center between Alex Wennberg and Michael Misa will be interesting to watch once training camp starts. At the end of last season, Wennberg was in that 2C role, with Misa centering the third line. I think Warsofsky continues this to start the season, but as the year progresses, Misa could start to wrestle that 2C job away from Wennberg.
With Wennberg down the middle, I think we could see Kiefer Sherwood on the right flank. This is another popular pairing we saw late last season. Both Sherwood and Wennberg have shown they can be responsible on both ends of the ice and can generate secondary scoring opportunities.
Filling in on the left side, I think we see Ivar Stenberg in this role to start the season. While the thought of putting Stenberg with Celebrini and Smith is tantalizing, I think Warsofsky will choose to put the teenage rookie alongside two proven NHL veterans to help him adjust to the NHL. Stenberg would also be with fellow countryman and former first-round pick Wennberg, who could prove to be an invaluable mentor.
This would leave us with an Opening Night top six of:
Marchment - Celebrini - Smith
Stenberg - Wennberg - Sherwood
To start the season, I believe Warsofsky will continue to lean on his veterans, as he has done consistently through his two-year tenure as head coach. This top six would leave out players like Misa, Chernyshov, Graf, and Toffoli, who could all arguably play in the top six. I could see a potential third line being centered by Misa, with Graf and Chernyshov being the two wingers to round out the top nine.
This unfortunately leaves Toffoli with no clear place to go, and potentially pushes him into a fourth-line role. While Toffoli’s game last season did take a step back, he still put up 19 goals while averaging only 14:58 of ice time per game, his lowest average in over a decade.
At the beginning of the season, we will probably see lines change on a daily basis. Players will get shuffled in and out of the top six, and Stenberg, following Misa, Smith, and Dickinson in their rookie years, will most likely have maintenance games as he adjusts to the pace of an 84-game NHL season. We could still see players traded before the start of the season. Waiver-exempt Igor Chernyshov starting the season in the AHL is a real possibility, too. The forward lines we see on Opening Night will look different from the ones we see as the season progresses. The Sharks’ forward group is very crowded, and Ryan Warsofsky will have his hands full trying to find the best combinations.
